To the south the election campaign is under way and the outcome has implications for us here in Canada.
Before we get into that – let’s see where things are – in this eye blink of time. If it were based on popular vote for each candidate Biden would put the election to bed early but its not that simple. They have what’s called the electoral college which has a specific number of votes per State, supposedly to give smaller states more say based on smaller populations than states like California and Texas.
So where are things at the moment on the electoral college ledger? Both candidates have their stronghold states and a series of trending states. In addition there are a number too close to call. If the election were held today polls indicate Biden wouldn’t need the swing states. At present Trump has 119 votes to Biden with 298. The magic number to win is 270.
In addition the polls over all show Biden ahead 50% to 41%. The other problem for Trump is the swing states he won last time are trending away from him.
For Canada we could experience some economic ripples either way. Trump and his erratic behavior slap tariffs of products destined for American manufacturing. Wood, aluminum and steel. Biden is not in favor of oil based energy investment.
With a little over eighty days to go lets look at where the people are on the issues of the day and who is on the right side of history. Almost without exception the Democrats.
The issue of race in America. While Trump defends confederate statues. The majority of Americans are embracing some form of inter racial inclusion. People are now in favor of the medicare system Trumps lawyers are in court trying to repeal.
America has been introduced to the concept of a social safety net made necessary by the pandemic.Trump is seen as a bungler of the pandemic with enough political fallout to paint him as the incompetent villain
From here it gets worse. Trump is losing white suburban women. He has this nineteen fifties image of them. The stereo type stay at home mom the suburban house wife. He does not understand what frightens him. This portion of the electorate are not living in the fifties. They are moms yes, but they are also lawyers, Doctors, and small business owners. They are soccer moms and strong independent entities in their own right. They are also trending away from the Trump image of America.
The Minorities and youth are not only opposed to Trump, they are registering and showing signs of actually voting. What the remnants of the Republican Party see is the polling is not good. Many of the experienced campaign strategists who got Bush and others elected are working with the Lincoln Project a conservative group sponsoring anti Trump ads. There are senior former Republicans endorsing Biden and he has a strong woman opponent running against him for Vice President.
Yes a poll is a snapshot in time. I have the feeling though, the pictures yet to come are going to get dramatically worse. There is one thing Trump is up against he can’t control.
A restless electorate that wants to change direction. They also want stability and that is not the Presidents strong suit. There is a long way to go with October surprises but even with that I for one don’t believe the numbers are there and Trump runs the risk of taking down Republicans in the Senate, the House and State Governments that supported him.
Let the games begin.