Oh the sweet scent of spring, with a hint of election fever. We have a minority government and with spring the itch for power heats up the blood running through the veins of politicians,
Keeping that in mind let us gaze out on the political landscape.
For the Liberals they are ahead but their fortunes have dipped a bit. A closer look at numbers in a bit, there is more to see first.
Some point or wag their finger at the WE Scandal. Yes it is a problem. Ask yourself, when has the looming threat of scandal not plagued the Liberals going into an election lately? It is so common it’s almost blasé. The Covid crisis gave them political points. The roll out of vaccines and their encouraging explanations for setbacks is not as positive. The economy has questions as well.
Contrast that with the Conservatives running second as I will show in a moment and the NDP and Greens, although increasing slightly are not making major gains. Yes its not as rosy for the Liberals but still positive. While we explore the poll tracker results of Feb 8 2021 I will add one more observation.
At present the Liberals are at 35% a dip of .6%
The Conservatives are at 30% a dip of .8%
The NDP 18.2% up .1%
Greens 6.4% up 0.6%
The Block 6.7% steady
These numbers come from poll tracker which is fairly consistent with the mood of the electorate.
On paper it looks pretty steady until you add one important factor which does not look as good for the Conservatives at the present time
For those who traditionally vote Liberal slightly over 80% will definitely support Trudeau.
For those who traditionally vote NDP over 80% will support Jagmeet Singh.
Interesting to note those who vote conservative are a little over 60% sure they will vote for O’Toole.
The question is who is itching for an election? In my opinion it is the Liberals. The Conservative leader needs more exposure to the public. I think there are itchy fingers on the election button but whoever pushes it could feel the heat of a blow back. Then again if the opposition triggers the trip to the polls and the vaccine problem sorts itself out the Liberals could eek out a majority.
Then again the odds of forming the government are interesting in that if you follow the regional trending it’s said the Liberals have a forty percent chance in a minority government. But if one or the other were to score a majority the Liberal odds are in the high forties and the Conservatives are said to be at about a 9% chance. Yes the liberals have slipped but O’Toole has not sucked up the malaise and labeled it conservative at least not yet. As with all minorities it’s best to strike while the iron is hot.
Then again looking at the numbers I would think the parties will let the election stew steep a little longer.
One cautionary note a poll is a snapshot in time.