The picture is becoming clearer as to the likely outcome of the election. That is with.. a bit of muddy water. A week or two ago I pointed out in a multi-party system the Conservatives could have more or less seats but would not likely form a government in the current political climate.
So where are we? The latest breakdown shows a couple of things. One the undecided vote has shrunk dramatically to less than ten percent. The undecided vote is not trending in any one direction. As of Monday:
Conservatives up 4.6%
Liberal up 4.8%
NDP up 3,9%
Greens up 1.7%
The Bloc up 0.9%
PPC up 1.1%
For now the bleeding has stopped for the Liberals in Quebec and the Conservatives have failed to break out into a serious lead.
The national poll tracker has the two parties neck and neck with the Conservatives slightly ahead. As of Monday:
Here is where it gets interesting. Percentages are one thing the real number is where the seats are. The Conservatives are all but shut out of Quebec, and the vote rich section of Ontario.
The Liberals are fighting for seats in Quebec with the Bloc. The Bloc will only support what Quebec wants and what they don’t want is a pipeline. Very unlikely to support the Conservatives.
The NDP I think could move on a pipeline for a Pharma care and Dental Program and support for students. Liberal alliance likely. The Greens like the Bloc not likely to go for a pipeline.
In the west we should not get upset about coalitions in BC we have two. The BC Liberal party is a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives, their forerunner was Social Credit. The other coalition is the NDP Greens.
The latest seat projection based on polling as of Monday:
If the numbers hold by Saturday we will have a better insight. We will have a race to the wire that is too close to call.
Publisher: A few facts
338 seats in House of Commons – 1 is the speaker
170 seats required for a majority government
Ontario has 121
Quebec has 78
BC has 42
Alberta has 34
Sask and Manitoba both have 14
Maritimes have 32
North west territories 3
A bit of shocker here:
present H of C allotment