The discussion over turkey will be more than pass the gravy as we forge ahead with the Federal Election Campaign (FEC). Last week I suggested Jagmeet Singh won the debate in English and still hold to that conviction. The French debate many of the national pundits say he did again. Having said that it looks like the big winner was Blanchet leader of the Bloc.
So where are we? The Liberals and Conservatives as of Friday were down slightly to 32% each while the NDP rose to 15% the Greens up also to 10%. The biggest move was the resurgence of the Bloc they rose substantially in Quebec. The PPC is just short of 3% and failing to gain a foothold anywhere.
In Quebec and Ontario even in the Maritime Provinces the Liberals are ahead but the Bloc is (blocking) there way to a majority government. Notice I did not say a Conservative majority? It is not in the cards.
From this point on it gets interesting. The NDP and even the Greens can side with the Liberals true. But then there is the Bloc. What if they announced support for the Conservatives?
At first glance it could be appealing however most conservatives detest the Bloc and framed them as separatists.
It could get very lumpy in the political bed. For Scheer a life preserver in the form of the Bloc might look more like an anvil than a floatation device. The NDP made it clear they will not support a Conservative minority. The Greens won’t support any government interested in pushing a pipeline. It should be noted it could be the death Nell of the Bloc if the support any conservative pipeline proposal. Yes it is more confusing than mastering a rubix cube.
So what does the map look like? Maritime provinces heavy Liberal with a return of some NDP a few conservatives and a Green or two.
Ontario and Quebec Liberal and some NDP and the Bloc in Quebec. The conservatives will have a reduced presence in those provinces.
The west prairies predominantly Conservative with a few seats of undetermined stripe at the moment.
BC, the battleground of undermined outcome. The Conservatives will not lose seats but the won’t gain any either. This election will see the NDP, the Greens and some urban Liberals. It could ultimately be decided in BC.
Remember there is a long way to go. What to watch for? In Ontario a draft of a provincial plan to privatize medicare. A hint of such a thing is bad even a lowly draft is a scare that could haunt the conservatives.
Of equal negative powder for the musket. The reductions and debt management plan of the conservatives will mean service cuts, infrastructure spending reductions that include not only transportation but spending on environmental new technology. The most astounding thing I heard Andrew Scheer say was the conservatives would balance the books in five years. What that means is we can go to the polls and vote for the deficit budget of our choice.
In this scenario we should all think about what we are going to get for our money. Just think as of Thanksgiving Day there is still a week to go to election day. I wonder what will fall out of the closet between now and then.